Gold ‘Deja Vu’ Shows Advance Above $1,000
Kim Kyoungwha
Tuesday, Aug 25, 2009
Gold will rise to more than $1,000 an ounce next month based on moving-average "deja vu" patterns since the start of 2005, according to Barclays Capital.
This year’s trading was similar to previous patterns that indicated gold has a tendency to "break higher" in September and the 200-week moving average showed the uptrend on the precious metal remained intact, Jordan Kotick and other analysts at Barclays wrote in a report on Aug. 21.
Bullion jumped 7.8 percent in September 2005 and 10 percent in September 2007, laying the ground for the metal to rise to new highs in the following months. Gold traded at $946.20 an ounce at 12:40 p.m. local time in Singapore, up 7.3 percent this year. The metal was "mired" in a contracting range between $967 and $928, the analysts said.
"This is likely a repeat of Aug. 2005 and Aug. 2007 when the market broke significantly higher in September," the analysts said. "We are looking for a breakout above $1,033 next month." Gold rose to a record $1,032.70 on March 17 last year.
The metal will rise to $979.74 an ounce in the fourth quarter and climb to 994.84 in the first quarter, according to a weighted average calculated by Bloomberg using forecasts of 18 analysts.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Standard Chartered Bank and three other financial companies predicted bullion would top $1,000 in the fourth quarter, the survey showed.
